If you are wondering what was the volatility immediately after the Fed's announcement, here is a 1min chart:
As expected, the pair had crazy moves back and forth, and those with opened positions at 18:15 GMT who did not use a low leverage and a loose stop-loss are now licking their wounds.
As I said in my previous post, if the Feds choose not to match the market expectations for a stimulus, but to pump in just enough to give a clear message that the US economy is on the right track, this will create the conditions for a short-term appreciation on USD.
Right know this is the case: the Feds decided to keep the current rates unchanged, but they will stimulate the market injecting about $75 billion per month until June. This would mean that the market should expect a total of $800 - $900 from the Feds during the next month, which is less than it's expectations.
The clear message was that FOC "will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.”
All these gives us hope to see a short-term bearish move in EUR/USD in the near future. Those of you who were expecting a down trend, don't get to excited and keep in mind the big picture: if it will happen, the bearish move will develop only for a short while. Afterward, there is great chance to see a new bullish wave, up to 1.4500, at first.
At this moment the spreads are still very large, so even if the Fed's announcement created the premises for a bearish movement, wait for confirmation, and don't get into the trade before having a strong technical signal.
EUR/USD is now traded at above 1.4100 and entering now into the market may sound a good idea for obtaining large profit very quick, but keep in mind that the risk after the event is still huge, and no clear confirmation of a bearish or bullish move have been confirmed yet on neither of the charts.
I will try to keep you updated on this.
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