fxtalk

During the Rate Decision announcement the pair we could see some crazy back and forth movement (and by crazy I mean 100 pips in several seconds). The EUR/USD pair jumped above 1.4100 and has been traded between 1.4150 and 1.4250 since.

The near future: We could see a bearish movement somewhere these days, but keep in mind that, if it will happen, this would not last very long and the pair will eventually rally up to 1.4500. The pair is currently overbought on both 3-4hr and 1hr charts and very close to overbought on 1 day chart. Also, the general sentiment is in favor for a bearish movement in the near future.

What would be the best approach for the next few days? NOT TO TRADE on EUR/USD until we see some clear movement. Theoretically, the Feds decision should produce a very short time bearish movement followed by an important rally, but the reality is not built on what theory says about an event but it's all about what the crowd understands and the way the crowd reacts.

The bigger picture: Will we see a short time bearish movement? Maybe yes, maybe not, the market will provide the answer during the next days. Will we see a bullish move somewhere in the mid-term future? 99.9% yes. The Feds decision is to pump $75 billion per month until June and the major effect will be a depreciation of the USD. Will this rally hold, or it will be a long term rally? Probably not. The Feds action comes somehow in contradiction with the natural market's behavior, and, as all the artificial things on this world, it's effect should be limited on time.

So, keep an eye on EUR/USD and wait for a clear signal; do not trade until you have the confirmation for a strong trend.

Also, keep a close eye on GBP/USD these days, since the BoE Rate Decision has been announced today and we should see it's effects on the pair soon enough.

Some good trading signals are also expected from the USD/JPY pair during the next days/weeks. The bearish move is close to it's end and somewhere during the next weeks we should get the confirmation for a major rally.